Expectation vs Reality
There’s an unspoken rule in shiny hunting: you find the shiny when you least expect it. That tends to hold true, especially during those full-odds 1-in-8192 hunts.
For my Shiny Badge Quest in Pokémon FireRed and LeafGreen, that rule has absolutely applied.
Every hunt in this run, I’ve expected to go well over odds.
Every hunt in this run, I’ve gone wildly under.
If you’ve spent time in my streams, you likely know I love numbers and data. I’m constantly trying to use those odds to predict when the next shiny will appear, and I’m almost always wrong.
Here’s where the numbers currently stand:
Average Time: 11:05:45
Average Encounters: 1,851
Total Time: 33:17:16
Total Encounters: 5,552
Finding three full-odds shiny Pokémon in under 8,192 total encounters is wild, and there’s no shot I find another shiny under odds… right?
…Right?
No Pressure, No Problem
Now that I’ve found Revali and evolved him into a shiny Pidgeot, you can read about that encounter here, I could go claim the next Gym Badge. But for the first time in this run, I’m not feeling any pressure to move forward.
If you’ve been following the series, you’ll remember that a major goal was reaching Fuchsia City before June or July so I could participate in Safari Week on my FireRed or LeafGreen copy on Nintendo Switch. With two Gym Badges, I’ve already unlocked most of the Kanto region and reached Fuchsia two to three months earlier than expected.
In other words, I don’t need to take on the next Gym just yet.
As for shiny hunting events, Skirmish Kanto has officially wrapped up, and I’m currently between events. In about a week, FireRed LeafGreen Showdown begins, and I’ll be right back to grinding for points. But for now, I actually get to slow down and focus on other priorities.
The timing couldn’t be better. Finals season is here, my semester is wrapping up, and my in-laws are in town.
For those reasons, I’m not actively shiny hunting right now. Instead, I’m using my limited time to prepare for FireRed LeafGreen Showdown. If I find a shiny during the event, I’ll earn a badge on shinydex.com, which is a priority for me.
Some of the quickest shiny hunts in Pokémon FireRed and LeafGreen come from Celadon City Game Corner soft resets. Because of that, one of the best things I can do right now is convert my in-game cash into Poké Coins, then turn those coins into prizes and take my chances at a shiny.
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When You Stop Looking
So, I find myself back on Route 7, prioritizing money with Pay Day using Honorary. I’m not even tracking encounters right now because I’m genuinely not shiny hunting.
Which is exactly when it happened.
Since I wasn’t tracking encounters, I can only estimate, but this shiny Meowth likely appeared in under 2,500 encounters. That brings the total to four shiny Pokémon under odds in this run.
Wild.
Finding a shiny Meowth is not only lucky, it’s nostalgic. I found Rupees, a shiny Meowth, back in 2022 for my LeafGreen Shiny Badge Quest, which means I’ve now completed the shiny line in Generation 3. For an 8,192 base-odds game, I’m pretty happy with that. Because of that, this Meowth won’t be evolving, as Rupees already holds that spot as a shiny Persian.
Speaking of nicknames, I think I’ll name this shiny Meowth Cleocatra.
The unfortunate part of this find is that Honorary is already level 100 and perfectly EV trained.
Sigh.
I’m heading back to Route 22 to let my cat hunt some Spearow. Cat sees bird, what can I say?
Until next time!
About the Author
Scott (Scotty) Greenhalgh is the founder and owner of Input Lag, an independent Nintendo-focused publication. Scotty brings a player-first perspective informed by years of hands-on experience with Nintendo games to his reviews, rankings, and editorial coverage. His writing focuses on how games feel to play, their long-term value, and the impact Nintendo’s creative and business decisions have on players.
Outside of Input Lag, he also creates Pokémon-focused content online under the name Gr3atScotty.
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